4 weeks and counting...

This week's post was delayed due to my assuming my new job as Interim Dean for the School of Social Sciences and Human Services yesterday - just too busy to post yesterday!

After my post last week, my wife's uncle sent me this Updated Election Forecasting Model
I had seen it (and other models) before.  Though I respect social science modeling and predictions (I'm a Political Scientist myself) I have more faith in predictions that people put money behind.  "But aren't the scholars at CU putting their academic reputation on the line?" you may ask.  Yes, and no.  If they are wrong, they have margin of error, unforeseen variables, and anomalies to save their reputation.  Gamblers/investors lose their money if they are wrong - nothing to fall back on to save themselves.

Here's this weeks map.

Obama: 303

Romney: 235

The big news is Florida flipping into Romney's column.  Across the board there is some movement towards Romney, but not enough to even pull him into the 40% range in the swing states he is losing on this week's map.

Senate Partisan Caucusing prediction:

Democrats: 52

Republicans: 48

Indiana's Senate race is only 51% in the Republican column...53-47 is a possibility next week.