T-minus 5 weeks...UPDATE

I have been relying a lot on Facebook to keep people updated on my life.  However, this update is too long for a status - I need a blog.

I used to frequented a sports gambling site called TradeSports.com.  The format they used was of a futures exchange.  In addition to sporting events, they would have social, political, weather, and all other sorts of events to "bet" on.  I am not a gambler - and have never gambled in my life (except at Grandpa and Grandma Young's New Year's Eve parties) - but I found the gamblers at TradeSports more accurate than the pollsters.  In fact, their state-by-state electoral college prediction for 2004 was exactly right.

Tradesports.com went out of operation a few years ago; however, Intrade.com took over the non-sports side.  As of 10/1, the electoral college outcome looks like this:

2012 Presidential Election: Electoral Map

Obama: 332
Romney: 206

Colorado, Florida and Virginia have been slipping slowly away from Obama over the past 24 hours; however, they remain above 65% likely to go Democratic.  Don't get to excited or disheartened about the map - 5 weeks is a long time in politics.  Also, the phrase "October Surprise" has nothing to do with the Great Pumpkin.

I hope to post these predictions every Monday until election day - and I'll link this over to Facebook so my friends can see it quickly.

Brad

**UPDATE**
The Senate is expected to go as follows:
Democrats: 50
Republicans: 48
Independent: 2 (Bernie Sanders, VT, caucuses with the Democrats.  The ME independent will likely caucus with them as well)

Partisan Caucusing prediction:
Democrats: 52
Republicans: 48